Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 29th, 2025

Jeff Johnson • January 29, 2025

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, announces end of quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening. The Bank will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.2

Projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published today are subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the threat of trade tariffs by the new administration in the United States. Since the scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast in the absence of new tariffs.

In the MPR projection, the global economy is expected to continue growing by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised up, mainly due to stronger consumption. Growth in the euro area is likely to be subdued as the region copes with competitiveness pressures. In China, recent policy actions are boosting demand and supporting near-term growth, although structural challenges remain. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries. US bond yields have risen, supported by strong growth and more persistent inflation. In contrast, yields in Canada are down slightly. The Canadian dollar has depreciated materially against the US dollar, largely reflecting trade uncertainty and broader strength in the US currency. Oil prices have been volatile and in recent weeks have been about $5 higher than was assumed in the October MPR.

In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy. The recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak. The outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.

Canada’s labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth because of reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than was expected in October. Following growth of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected. A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2%. The Bank forecasts CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.

Setting aside threatened US tariffs, the upside and downside risks around the outlook are reasonably balanced. However, as discussed in the MPR, a protracted trade conflict would most likely lead to weaker GDP and higher prices in Canada.

With inflation around 2% and the economy in excess supply, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to 3%. The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial. Lower interest rates are boosting household spending and, in the outlook published today, the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested. We will be following developments closely and assessing the implications for economic activity, inflation and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 12, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 16, 2025.

Footnotes

1. Effective January 30, the deposit rate will be set at 5 basis points below the Bank’s policy interest rate to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. For more details, see the market notice published simultaneously with this press release.[←]
2. A market notice published simultaneously with this press release provides operational details.[←]

Read the January 29th, 2025 Monetary Report.

< Older Post Newer Post >

Jeff Johnson

Mortgage Expert

GET STARTED

What You Need To Know About Co-Signing A Mortgage

By Jeff Johnson • June 25, 2025

So you’re thinking about co-signing on a mortgage? Great, let’s talk about what that looks like. Although it’s nice to be in a position to help someone qualify for a mortgage, it’s not a decision that you should make lightly. Co-signing a mortgage could have a significant impact on your financial future. Here are some things to consider. You’re fully responsible for the mortgage. Regardless if you’re the principal borrower, co-borrower, or co-signor, if your name is on the mortgage, you are 100% responsible for the debt of the mortgage. Although the term co-signor makes it sound like you’re somehow removed from the actual mortgage, you have all the same legal obligations as everyone else on the mortgage. When you co-sign for a mortgage, you guarantee that the mortgage payments will be made, even if you aren’t the one making them. So, if the primary applicant cannot make the payments for whatever reason, you’ll be expected to make them on their behalf. If payments aren’t made, and the mortgage goes into default, the lender will take legal action. This could negatively impact your credit score. So it’s an excellent idea to make sure you trust the primary applicant or have a way to monitor that payments are, in fact, being made so that you don’t end up in a bad financial situation. You’re on the mortgage until they can qualify to remove you. Once the initial mortgage term has been completed, you won’t be automatically removed from the mortgage. The primary applicant will have to make a new application in their own name and qualify for the mortgage on their own merit. If they don’t qualify, you’ll be kept on the mortgage for the next term. So before co-signing, it’s a good idea to discuss how long you can expect your name will be on the mortgage. Having a clear and open conversation with the primary applicant and your independent mortgage professional will help outline expectations. Co-signing a mortgage impacts your debt service ratio. When you co-sign for a mortgage, all of the debt of the co-signed mortgage is counted in your debt service ratios. This means that if you’re looking to qualify for another mortgage in the future, you’ll have to include the payments of the co-signed mortgage in those calculations, even though you aren’t the one making the payments directly. As this could significantly impact the amount you could borrow in the future, before you co-sign a mortgage, you’ll want to assess your financial future and decide if co-signing makes sense. Co-signing a mortgage means helping someone get ahead. While there are certainly things to consider when agreeing to co-sign on a mortgage application, chances are, by being a co-signor, you'll be helping someone you care for get ahead in life. The key to co-signing well is to outline expectations and over-communicate through the mortgage process. If you have any questions about co-signing on a mortgage or about the mortgage application process in general, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

First-Time Homebuyer? A New GST Rebate Could Put Thousands Back in Your Pocket

By Jeff Johnson • June 20, 2025

If you’re a first-time homebuyer eyeing a new build or major renovation, there's encouraging news that could make homeownership significantly more affordable. The federal government has proposed a new GST rebate aimed at easing the financial burden for Canadians entering the housing market. While still awaiting parliamentary approval, the proposed legislation offers the potential for thousands in savings —and could be a game-changer for buyers trying to break into today’s high-cost housing landscape. What’s Being Proposed? Under the new legislation, eligible first-time homebuyers would receive: A full GST rebate on homes priced up to $1 million A partial GST rebate on homes between $1 million and $1.5 million This could mean up to $50,000 in tax savings on a qualifying home—a major boost for anyone working hard to save for a down payment or meet mortgage qualification requirements. Why This Matters With interest rates still elevated and home prices holding steady in many regions, affordability remains a challenge. This rebate could offer meaningful relief in several ways: Lower Upfront Costs: Removing GST from the purchase price reduces the total amount of money buyers need to save before closing. Smaller Monthly Payments: A lower purchase price leads to a smaller mortgage, which translates to more manageable monthly payments. Improved Mortgage Qualification: With a reduced purchase amount, buyers may find it easier to meet lender criteria. According to recent estimates, a homebuyer purchasing a $1 million new home could see monthly mortgage payments drop by around $240 —money that could go toward savings, home improvements, or simply everyday expenses. Helping Families Help Each Other This proposal also offers a win for parents who are supporting their children in buying a first home. Whether through gifted down payments or co-signing, a lower purchase price and more affordable monthly costs mean that family support can go further—and set first-time buyers up for long-term success. Is This the Right Time to Buy? If you’re thinking about buying a new or substantially renovated home, this proposed rebate could dramatically improve your financial position. Now is the perfect time to explore your options and make sure your mortgage strategy is aligned with potential policy changes. 📞 Let’s connect for a free mortgage review or pre-approval. Whether you’re buying your first home or helping someone else take that first step, I’m here to help you make informed, confident decisions.